'冷眼旁观' 分类的存档

公开透明是抵制流言的最佳武器

距离汶川地震已经两天有余,伴随着时间的流逝,废墟下掩埋的人们生存的希望越来越渺茫,罹难者人数也越来越多。这场天灾,已经注定成为2008年中国人最惨痛的记忆。

政府对这次地震的反应是空前的。不但温总理在第一时间赶赴现场,各大媒体也一扫SARS初期的遮遮掩掩,迅速而深入的报道灾情和救灾的进展,国际媒体也可以亲身进入灾区一线,发出第一手的报道,可以说这种透明也是空前的。这种公开和透明取得了极佳的效果,不但全国人民深刻认识到了灾情的严重性,产生了强烈的凝聚力,就连对华不大友好的《纽约时报》也发表文章,难得的对中国救灾予以肯定,有美国媒体人甚至把温家宝总理在灾后几小时内赶赴灾区的表现,和美国总统布什在2005年卡特里娜飓风后的拖沓进行对比,称赞中国及时而公开的应急措施。

有些人总是担心,“公开透明”会被“别有用心的人”所利用。我承认,公开透明会把整个救灾行动置于外界的严格检视之中,其中那些激烈的批评者不会放过这一过程中的任何问题,他们会拿救灾过程中出现的任何失误作为武器进行攻击。可是,反击这种攻击的手段绝不是遮掩问题,正相反,这更给了攻击者以口实——如果心里没有鬼,为什么要遮遮掩掩呢?那些动不动就指责“西方敌对势力”的人应该好好反思一下自己,人家凭什么无条件的相信你的一面之词?只有主动把自己置于最严格的监督下,允许各种声音,包括批评的声音发出,对于批评者——不管是善意还是恶意——都要反躬自省,先做到有错必改,须知毕竟“苍蝇不叮无缝的蛋”。

公道自在人心。当政府的行动被置于公开透明的监督下时,毫无依据的批评或流言或许可以吸引得了一时的眼球,但注定不会得到广泛的支持,请不要低估和侮辱大家的智慧。

四川地震我们预测出了吗?

在国务院新闻办公室13日举办的记者招待会上,据《南方周末》网站报道,新加坡《联合早报》的记者向中国地震局新闻发言人张宏卫提问:

  • 新加坡联合早报记者:
    请问张宏卫先生,我们接到四川地震局职工7人的投诉,他们的亲人说在几天前就察觉到地震的迹象,但局里说为了保证奥运前的安定局面,禁止透露这个信息。请问张宏卫先生,这么大级别的地震,是否事先可以得到预警?您对此投诉有什么反映?谢谢。
  • 张宏卫(中国地震局新闻发言人)
    首先,这种推测是没有道理的。
  • 郭卫民(民政部副部长罗平飞)
    可以请专家张晓东先生介绍这次地震预测、预报的一些情况。
  • 张晓东(中国地震台网中心副主任)
    大家都知道地震预测是世界难题,为什么它是世界难题呢?它由三方面因素所决定:第一,地球的不可入性。大家知道上天容易入地难,我们对地下发生的变化,只能通过地表的观测来推测;第二,地震孕律的复杂性。通过专家多年的研究,现在逐渐认识到地震孕育、发生、发展的过程十分复杂,在不同的地理构造环境、不同的时间阶段,不同震级的地震都显示出相当复杂的孕律过程;第三,地震发生的小概率性。大家可能都感觉到,全球每年都有地震发生,有些还是比较大的地震。但是对于一个地区来说,地震发生的重复性时间是很长的,几十年、几百年、上千年,而进行科学研究的话,都有统计样本。而这个样本的获取,在有生之年都非常困难。因此我说上面三种原因决定,地震预报到目前仍是世界难题。

我对专家所说的预测地震之难没有丝毫意见,但是否在震前预测出地震这一问题却并没有得到正面回应。

平心而论,相较以往对这次地震的反应大体上是迅速和及时的。但地震所造成的损失是难以估量的,与成千上万人的身家性命密切相关,这就要求相关的信息必须得到全面及时的公开,存在的问题也必须得到公众全面的检视,相关的改进措施必须得到公众充分的讨论与参与。倘若以“救灾”之名控制扭曲信息正常传播,甚至试图掩盖可能存在的问题,最终只能使政府丧失信用,带来更大的损失。SARS殷鉴未远,主事者做何抉择,我们拭目以待。

地震、谣言与政府信用

2008年5月12日的这场地震,注定要为中国人所铭记,不仅仅因为霎那间的灰飞烟灭,大半个中国的人们都亲身体验了天摇地动的感觉,而这场劫难又给本已成多事之秋的2008年增添了不少悲剧色彩——成千上万的生命或许就此消逝。

技术的发展是惊人的,在亲身体会到摇晃的几分钟后,关于地震的第一条新闻已经见诸网络,很快,震源、震级、波及范围等渐次明朗,国家领导人也在第一时间奔赴震中。就在我几乎安然确信这个国家终于从SARS中吸取教训之后,疑惑却接踵而至……

从不同的渠道,我听到消息,12日晚22时-24时,北京会有小规模余震,一个版本甚至把来源指向了人民网,《人民日报》的网站:

人民网北京5月12日电 中国地震局刚刚发布公告称,北京时间08年05月12日14点30分左右北京局部地区发生2级轻微地震,另警告在08年05月12日晚上22点至24点时间段北京局部地区还会有2-6级地震,望大家提前做好预防措施。

而不久,遍布各大网站的消息却变成了辟谣,消息来源同样权威,中新社:

中新网北京5月12日电 (记者孙自法)中国地震局发布最新消息,关于“五月十二日晚二十二时至二十四时北京局部地区还要发生二至六级地震”纯属谣言,请大家不要相信。

我愿意相信第一则消息确实是谣言,可这“谣言”辟的确极不高明,丝毫没有对疑似是国字号媒体发布的所谓虚假消息做出任何说明,而截至我写这篇文章,人民网上除了几乎同样内容的辟谣文章外,似乎没有提到谣言与自己的关系。倘若却是有人假冒人民网的名义发布消息,为何不尽快澄清?倘若人民网确实发布了这则消息,为何不尽快公开说明?如此遮遮掩掩,怎能不让人担心另有隐情?

一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳。“我可以负责任的告诉大家,在中国工作、生活,包括旅游,都是安全的……”这是时任卫生部长张文康2003年4月3日在记者招待会上的名言,十几天后,SARS失控,他被免职,逝去的生命却再也挽不回了。

令人不安的,还有南方周末网站上的另一则消息

本次地震发生后,有网友反映四川省人民政府网站上有新闻称四川阿坝防震减灾局曾接群众电话求证地震传言,阿坝防震减灾局鉴定传言为谣传并对群众进行了辟谣。

记者在四川省人民政府网站下面的政务公开——政务动态——市州动态上找到了该条新闻:阿坝州防震减灾局成功平息地震误传事件。

该新闻显示上网日期为5月9日,全文为:

5月3日晚8时,阿坝州防震减灾局接到群众咨询电话,求证 “马尔康县梭磨乡马塘村将要发生大地震,村干部劝村民搬到户外居住”的传言是否属实。接到咨询电话后,阿坝州防震减灾局立即要求马尔康县防震减灾局采取措施,查找谣传来源,进行辟谣,做好宣传解释工作,防止谣传进一步扩大。接到情况通报后,马尔康县防震减灾局立即联系事发地梭磨乡人民政府,通报相关情况。乡人民政府迅速着手查找谣传来源,经查,此次谣传的发生是由于马尔康县在传达全省地质灾害防治工作电视电话会议时,村干部将“地质灾害”误听为“地震灾害”而造成。

在阿坝州防震减灾局及时进行情况说明和乡、村干部的主动解释下,解除了村民的恐慌情绪,当地生产生活秩序快速恢复了正常。

我深知,预测地震远称不上完善,贸然发布不完善的预测所造成的损失未必会比地震所造成的损失小。但倘若这篇文章所言属实,则至少我们应当认真检讨现行地震预测体制,毕竟地震所造成的损失,动辄是成千上万条性命。

行文之间,我突然发现南方周末网站上的上述文章神秘消失了。我不敢妄自揣度原因,只想斗胆问一句,SARS过后究竟该吸取些什么教训?倘若硬是要用人为控制信息传播的方式来提升所谓“政府信用”,我只能说,我也会在镜头前大谈特谈万事“和谐”,只是以后还要我别听信“谣言”时,我会给自己留条后路。这是我亲身从SARS中吸取的教训。

Why Chinese are so Angry towards Anti-Olympic Protesters

Below pictures are taken in Paris of the Olympic Torch Relay. The girl, Jin Jing, was sitting in a wheelchair when protesters tried to grab her torch. These pictures are being widely circulated in Chinese websites. Why do you thing Chinese are so angry towards anti-Beijing-Olympics protesters?

Arrogance and Ignorance

Once again, the New York Times shows its ignorance about China and Chinese. Yes, the paper successfully predicted the full retirement of a former president, but apparently when things dive deep into an identity issue, the Times does not know what it is talking about.

In an editorial published today, titled The Torch and Freedom, the paper “kindly” offered help to China:

Stop arresting dissidents. Stop spreading lies about the Dalai Lama, and start talking to him about greater religious and cultural freedoms for Tibet. Stop being an enabler to Sudan in its genocide in Darfur. In other words, start delivering on the pledge you made to the International Olympic Committee to respect human rights — which, by the way, include the freedom of expression and the freedom of assembly.

The editorial went on trying to explain why the Times is being resented by many Chinese:

Just so, the Communist authorities in China have been fanning nationalist resentments among their citizens with claims that protests against their repressive policies are staged by hostile foreign forces bent on ruining China’s grand Olympic party. The popular anger then makes it easier for the regime to arrest dissidents, stifle the news media and blame a “Dalai Lama clique” abroad for the troubles in Tibet.

This fits exactly into what I described as “arrogant westerners” in my last blog post. These westerners simply believe they know what Chinese are thinking, and hope they could get support from Chinese. When they don’t, they blame Chinese government for “fanning nationalism”.

It is especially interesting reading “stop spreading lies about the Dalai Lama”. The paper seems sure about its knowledge about Dalai. Unfortunately however, I doubt any serious academic work, even books and papers published in western world, was read by the Times’ editors. If they did read any, they would find Dalai is almost as much to blame as Chinese government in the current dilemma. Still, the only reason I can think of as why the Times blame Chinese government wholly for the Tibet problem is simply the paper’s preference. The Times just doesn’t believe what communists said.

I am Chinese but I am not communist. I read the Times and other American and European papers regularly and I would like to write about my opinion here. I’m interested to see if I would also be labeled as “brain-washed” Chinese just because I wrote something different. Below are my responses to the Times’ “help”:

  • Stop arresting dissidents.
    Sounds not bad. Only Chinese doesn’t care about this issue that much. Chinese know about these dissidents, but usually don’t care a lot. Political liberty is being discussed, sometimes even by the Government itself, yet most Chinese simply are not interested in the topic. You constantly read about this topic on the Times? Surprise! Isn’t that the Times’ “preference”?
  • Stop spreading lies about the Dalai Lama, and start talking to him about greater religious and cultural freedoms for Tibet.
    Well, Chinese government might not tell the whole story, but neither does your lovely “spiritual leader”. Read some serious work before making irresponsible judgments! Finding out why previously talks stalled and why Chinese government doesn’t trust Dalai from an independent source! (Which excludes Dalai’s followers as well as the Chinese Government!!!)
    Compared with American, yes, Tibetans may enjoy less religious and cultural freedom, but if compared with other Chinese, I don’t see they enjoy anything less. As compared with what they enjoyed under Dalai’s rule; of course they used to have what Dalai called “freedom”—it was “freedom” to warship Dalai under his rule! Tibet was then theocratic and Dalai considered Tibetan’s god!! Why do you think Dalai want a “free” Tibet? Think about Iran’s theocracy!!!
    Regarding reserving Tibetan culture, the risk it is facing is actually from globalization instead of Han Chinese. In fact, Han Chinese are busy worrying about their own culture reservation. Kicking all the Han Chinese and muslims out of Tibet might help to reduce the influence of the modern society, but unless Tibetans lock themselves from the outside world, there is no way to maintain the “purity” of their culture. Aren’t exiled Tibetan youth in India following Dalai meeting a similar problem? Can we say Dalai is committing his own “Cultural Genocide” to his fellow Tibetans?
  • Stop being an enabler to Sudan in its genocide in Darfur. In other words, start delivering on the pledge you made to the International Olympic Committee to respect human rights — which, by the way, include the freedom of expression and the freedom of assembly.
    Again, Chinese doesn’t care about Darfur much, neither about human rights issues. Without Renaissance, we simply don’t have that kind of culture, at least for the moment. Haven’t you found out the Times write only about a few dissidents consistently. I guess that’s basically China’s whole dissident community already!
    Talking about human rights, yes, China has many issues. But things are indeed getting better, and Chinese government is delivering its commitment to some extent. Only 30 years ago, people were executed without even trial, and now Chinese are already talking about “rule of law”. The government’s response to the riot is already with unprecedented restraint. We can and should expect more. But over one single night and China turns a democracy? It’s simply impossible! Keep in mind it was until 1965, roughly 100 years after the Civil War, when the African-American got the real voting rights!
  • The Communist authorities in China have been fanning nationalist resentments among their citizens…
    Judged by western standard, Chinese might be considered as nationalistic. But it is a way much complicated issue rooted deeply in Chinese culture and history, not over-simplified Government’s fanning. I explained a little bit in my last blog post.

Other than showing its arrogance and ignorance, this editorial of the Times is nothing constructive but misleading its readers, fanning resentments from Chinese or widening gap between westerners and Chinese. The Times itself should try something suggested to Chinese about the Tibet issue — Understand a different culture!